Thursday, 26 September 2013

Climate change report: what does it mean for you? - Telegraph.co.uk

Debarjun Saha | 23:49 |

The IPCC's assessments are considered the world's most authoritative on climate change. The IPCC itself is an intergovernmental body which was established in 1988 by the United Nations.

It does not conduct its own original research nor does it monitor climate related data but assesses the most recently available information about climate change. It draws on peer-reviewed studies and published scientific works.

Why is it important?

All of the IPCC reports undergo an extensive review process that involves thousands of scientists who participate in a voluntary capacity.

Governments also participate in the review process and the final report must have the consensus of every IPCC member country.

The review process gives the IPCC reports their authority and they are used by decision makers to form their policies on climate change.

Governments will meet in Poland later this year to discuss the conclusions of the latest IPCC report and how to respond to them.

What are the main findings of the report?

The headline conclusion is that scientists are now even more certain than before that human activity is causing the planet to get warmer.

They say that greenhouse gases released by human activity have caused global temperatures to rise by 0.89 degrees C between 1901 and 2012.

However, since 1998 there has been no significant increase in global average surface temperature for the past 15 years.

The IPCC says this "pause" is caused by cyclical fluctuations in sea temperatures, dust from volcanic eruptions and the downward phase in the solar cycle.

Many scientists believe that temperatures have been rising more slowly recently because the 'missing' heat has been absorbed into the world's oceans.

However, according to former World Bank chief economist Lord Stern the report will make it clear that the threat of climate change is "immense" and it would be "absurd" for anyone to claim that the risks are small.

The study will also make predictions for rises in the earth's temperature and sea levels to the end of the century.

The report says that average temperature may rise by 0.3 degrees C by the year 2100 but temperatures could rise by as much as 4.8 degrees C.

Sea levels could rise more than three feet by the end of the century.

How reliable is the IPCC?

The report is intended to be a summary of all the scientific thinking and research that has been conducted on climate change.

Some of the most recent research will not be included as the authors must decide upon a cut off point for information that will be included. It will mean that findings from the past year will not feature.

The IPCC has also in the past come in for criticism over the political nature of the process, that sees government officials negotiating to reword sections of the report, often line by line.

Although this year the amount of disagreement has been less, there are still some differences in the final report compared to the draft.

The IPCC has come under fire for using inaccurate information. In 2007 their report claimed that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035, after citing a report by the WWF.

It also gave the wrong percentage for the amount of land in the Netherlands under sea level.

In 2009 emails between scientists working for the IPCC seemed to show some that researchers had colluded to make data more clearly fit the theory that global warming is caused by humans.

Despite that fact that there was no evidence to support this conclusion, the IPCC's reputation was shaken.

Do a couple of degrees really matter?

Experts are divided on this. Some say that warming of less than 2 degrees C from preindustrial levels will result in no damage to the world's ecology.

In fact they say it could actually be beneficial in many areas, improving crop yields in colder areas and extending the area of land that can be farmed.

Others say that the earth's ecosystems are so sensitive that it would only take a couple of degrees to completely disrupt them.

Many animals could become extinct, food production in arid areas would decrease and flooding could become widespread due to the melting of the polar ice caps.

Surely warmer weather in the UK would be a good thing?

It may have been a perfect British summer this year, but warmer temperatures are likely to mean an increase in extreme weather.

This is likely to include lengthy droughts, heatwaves, heavy rain, flooding and violent thunder storms. There are also predictions that there will be more extreme cold spells during winter.

This will have an impact on the country's wildlife and agricultural industry. For people it will also mean more disruption to transport networks.

How will this affect my everyday life?

Political decisions are made using the information contained in the IPCC report and it forms the basis for agreements and treaties that are agreed at international governmental meetings.

The UK introduced the Climate Change Act in 2001, committing the country to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 34 per cent by 2020.

However, investment in the UK's renewable energy has fallen to a seven-year low.

According to the Government's own predictions, the current climate change policies will see the average cost of electricity rise by 41 per cent by 2013.

Initiatives like the carbon price floor - which makes companies pay to emit carbon dioxide - may also increase household energy bills as renewable energy sources are expensive.

Next year David Cameron will review the fourth carbon budget, which sets out how much carbon dioxide the UK can produce each year.

However, many Conservatives, spurred on by George Osborne, believe that we should be focusing more on using fossil fuels to obtain our gas - using methods such as fracking.



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