©FT Energy secretary, Ed Davey
There is no legal or economic reason to water down the UK's efforts to tackle global warming the government's chief climate advisers have warned, in a move launching what is likely to be one of the most serious environmental rows yet within the coalition.
It is even possible these efforts will need to be strengthened to keep up with changes in the EU, said Lord Deben, chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, in a letter to Ed Davey, the energy secretary, on Thursday.
Fears that the UK's targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the 2020s could make British businesses less competitive than their EU rivals prompted the government to promise a review next year of the so-called "carbon budgets" underpinning the targets.
But the committee, a statutory body set up under the 2008 UK Climate Change Act, said the findings of its recent analysis of the EU's position reinforce the fourth budget, which lasts through the 2020s, "rather than provide a basis to change it".
"The assumptions regarding EU circumstances upon which the fourth carbon budget decision was made have not changed, and therefore there is no legal or economic justification to change the budget in this respect at this time," Lord Deben wrote to Mr Davey. "Rather, the budget remains cost effective, with manageable costs and impacts, given our assessment of EU developments."
Weakening the UK's current policies is also likely to damage investor confidence and "severely undermine UK credibility" in looming EU climate negotiations, Lord Deben added.
Tory ministers say that they are braced for a major fight with the Lib Dems over the fourth carbon budget in the coming months.
George Osborne, the chancellor, sees the target – which covers the mid-2020s – as a barrier to his plan for a new dash for gas, with up to 40 new gas-fired power stations being built in the next two decades.
Mr Osborne said in an interview last weekend that Britain should resist a "very prescriptive path for green energy".
"I don't want us to be the only people out there in front of the rest of the world," he said. "I certainly think we shouldn't be further ahead of our partners in Europe."
We would question how the CCC can make an informed judgment now, that the 2025 target will be in line with our EU and global competitors, when significant uncertainness remains
- Gareth Stace, head of climate and environment policy, EEF
That was a clear signal that he will attempt to use the "rip cord" that he inserted into the agreement struck by former energy secretary Chris Huhne two years ago: meaning that if Britain is moving faster than the EU then the fourth carbon budget can be abandoned.
The EU is in the throes of negotiating a new set of climate change targets to replace its current ones, which require a 20 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions up to 2020 from 1990 levels.
An analysis of the UK's position attached to Lord Deben's letter says if the EU agrees to tougher emissions cuts to 2030, this "could require a tightening of the [UK] budget".
Gareth Stace, head of climate and environment policy at the EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, said the government had made a commitment to ensuring that climate change costs faced by industry were not out of line with the rest of Europe. "It is vital that its response to the advice from the CCC delivers on this," he said.
"The rest of the EU has not followed our lead and we are still waiting on agreement of the EU 2030 climate package, which is uncertain and delayed," said Mr Stace. "We would therefore question how the CCC can make an informed judgment now, that the 2025 target will be in line with our EU and global competitors, when significant uncertainness remains."
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