New Delhi, June 19 (PTI): India's summer monsoon will become highly unpredictable if the world's average temperature rises by two degree Celsius in the next two-three decades, a scientific report commissioned by the World Bank says.
The report released in New Delhi on Wednesday evaluates at the likely impacts of warming between two degree Celsius and four degree Celsius on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia.
Coastal cities like Kolkata and Mumbai are "potential impact hotspots" threatened by extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures, the report 'Turn down the heat: Climate extremes, regional impacts and the case for resilience' says. Depicting life in a not-too-distant future shaped by already present warming trends, the new report warns that by the 2040s, India will see a significant reduction in crop yields because of extreme heat.
It says shifting rain patterns will leave some areas under water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation or, in some cases, for even drinking.
"An extreme wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century," the report says.
The warming will impact significant reduction in crop yields and some 63 million people may no longer be able to meet their caloric demand. Decreasing food availability can also lead to significant health problems, it warns.
The report also predicts substantial reduction in the flow of the Indus and the Brahmaputra in late spring and summer. In the next 20 years, a several-fold increase in the frequency of unusually hot and extreme summer months is projected.
"The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2 degrees celsius — warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years — that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.
"In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth's temperature," Kim said.
The report, prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, reveals that in South Asia, the potential change in the regularity and impact of the all-important monsoon could precipitate a major crisis in the region.
Across South East Asia, rural livelihoods are faced with mounting pressures as sea levels rise, tropical cyclones increase in intensity, and important marine ecosystem services are lost as warming approaches 4 degrees Celsius.
The report says sea level rise has been occurring more rapidly than previously projected and a rise of as much as 50 cm by the 2050s may already be unavoidable as a result of past emissions. In some cases, impacts could be felt much earlier.
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Nagas need to address broader societal goals
Our Correspondent
Kohima |June 19
The Directorate of Science & Technology, Nagaland has asserted that climate change cannot be addressed in isolation of broader societal goals, such as equity or sustainable development. It informed that climate change involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes. The Directorate stressed on climate mitigation to permanently reduce long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life and property. It also stated that climate change adaptation is an understanding of how individuals, groups and natural systems can prepare for and respond to changes in the climate or their environment.
Through a pamphlet received here today, the Directorate stated that there are seven indicators that would be expected to increase in a warming world. It includes; increase in temperatures of the troposphere, ocean, sea surface; increase in humidity; rise in sea and ocean levels; increase in the ocean heat content and increase in temperature over land. It also added that three indicators would be expected to decrease, which include: retracting glacial line, decrease of ice levels in seas and oceans and decreasing snow cover on land.
According to Mitchell and Tanner (2006), it is crucial to reducing vulnerability to climate change. While mitigation tackles the causes of climate change, adaptation tackles the effects of the phenomenon. The potential to adjust in order to minimize negative impact and maximize any benefits from climate change is known as adaptive capacity. A successful adaptation can reduce vulnerability by building on and strengthening the existing coping strategies.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that there will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However the IPCC informed of strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers and changes to many physical and biological systems. It further states that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities.
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